Weekly Observations 14th August 2019

IN MY OPINION! there are players out there that will back the favourite to win every race on the programme with the premise that they will win a third of all races and they generally do. Bookies love these punters as their chances of having an actual winning day is minimal. Playing a level stake on a 9 race programme you would have to back 3 winning favourites at $3 to break even and one at $4 to turn over a small profit. There are also some tipsters out there that work on that same formula, getting 3 of their on top selections up it might look impressive at the end of each month with 12 winners from 36 selections but a winning formula??? I.M.O.

WE DO! we certainly tip favourites here at Horsebuck$ but only when they look the goods and we leave them out when they are a false favourite. Value is our key mindset at Horsebuck$ but if we like a favourite, tip it we will and WE DO!

BELIEVE IT OR NOT!! steer clear of odds on favourites especially if you must play the midweeks.  The words “Odds on look on and never run up stairs” once used by the late great race caller Ken Howard are even more prevalent today. BELIEVE IT OR NOT!

PEAR SHAPED!!!  Tawfiq Boy’s day went !!! as they entered the straight never really clear next time for him.

Below is a list of horses we will be following closely over the next couple of months, all good horses that should pay their way in any race they contest.

BRAVE SONG: This horse has wintered up here extremely well and we are hoping he races in the spring, he just might jump another notch or two.

HOSTWIN SUPREME: one run up here absolutely no luck at all in the Listed Daybreak Lover, hoping he spelled up here. he could be one at nice odds in the Spring.

BACCARAT LADY: we will definitely be following this mare if she ventures south for the spring. Top class and handles all conditions.

LUCICELLO: serious horse, virtually given no chance last start when a close 3rd. How far he is going this prep unsure but if he continues will win a good class race.

SESAR: media outlets have a wrap on him not sure it is warranted. But we know one thing he will be winning a nice race over the next month especially on a heavy track.

ALLIGATOR BLOOD: another of David Vandykes horses along with Baccarat Lady. This bloke won with his ears pricked las start to remain unbeaten a very good galloper we are hoping he goes south as well. Because he is trained here in Queensland we should obtain some nice odds about both.